BANWA Series B

Data Science, Health Informatics, and Disease Surveillance in the Philippines

Gemiliano D. Aligui — Fri, 28 Apr 2023 13:47:00 +0000

This communication is intended to propose an idea for the development of a Center of Health Informatics and Data Science for Disease Surveillance in the Philippines.

Forecasting COVID-19 Cases in the Philippines Using Various Mathematical Models

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 13:46:24 +0000

Due to the rapid increase of COVID-19 infection cases in many countries such as the Philippines, efforts in forecasting daily infections have been made to better manage the pandemic and respond effectively. In this study, we considered the cumulative COVID-19 infection cases in the Philippines from 6 March 2020 to 31 July 2020, and forecasted the cases from 1–15 August 2020 using various mathematical models—weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and random forest. We compared the results to the actual data using traditional error metrics. Our results showed that the ARIMA (1,2,1) model had the closest forecast values to the actual data. Policymakers can use this result in determining which forecast method to use for their community to have data-based information for the preparation of their personnel and facilities.

Keywords: forecasting · epidemics · moving average · exponential smoothing · ARIMA · Ornstein-Uhlenbeck · SEIR · random forest

Assessment of Copper Total Bioaccumulation and Genotoxicity in Boac River, Marinduque Island, Philippines Two Decades Post-Mining Disaster: Pseudodon sp. as Aquatic Fauna Indicator

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 13:46:39 +0000

In 1996, a mining drainage tunnel burst and released copper wastes into the Boac River—rendering it dead. Two decades after the disaster, the river is now used for aquaculture farming. This study assessed the total bioaccumulation of copper and its genotoxicity in the mussel Pseudodon sp. farmed in the river. A total of 30 Pseudodon sp. were collected randomly from the downstream tributaries of the river in September 2015. Total bioaccumulation in terms of total copper concentrations was determined by atomic absorption spectrometry and the genotoxicity by micronucleus cytome assay. The total copper concentrations were present in the soft tissues (Mean + Standard Error of the Mean [SEM] of 0.0550 + 0.0003 ppm). Genotoxic indicators of nuclear alterations showed the formation of micronuclei yielding the highest frequency (Mean + SEM of 10.257 + 0.793 per 1000 cells). Binucleated, nuclear buds, agranular, apoptotic, and necrotic nuclear anomalies were likewise evident. Total copper concentrations and the frequency of the hemocyte micronuclei occurrences showed a significant relationship (r=0.366; p = 0.047) while the other nuclear abnormalities were not significantly related to the total copper concentrations. Continuous biomonitoring of mining-affected areas is necessary to safeguard people’s health from the effects of mining wastes.

Keywords: bioaccumulation · copper · energy use · genotoxicity · heavy metal · mining · nuclear abnormalities

A Mixed-Integer Programming Model for Optimal Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in Davao City

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 13:46:08 +0000

With the emergence of COVID-19 in Davao City, the need to acquire herd immunity through vaccination is paramount in averting the further spread of the disease in addition to complying with health and safety protocols. This study presents a reformulation of Smalley et al.’s (2015) oral cholera vaccine—mixed-integer programming model (OCV-MIP) to fit the context of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the city for 5 years, with consideration of the possible need for annual revaccination, given limited supply and budget resources, to minimize COVID-19 cases further. The population is divided into subgroups with associated incidence rates serving as the basis for the optimal allocation of vaccines. Different ways of population stratification by some combinations of risk areas and age group divisions were explored. The results revealed that it is optimal to prioritize the vaccination of subgroups with the highest incidence rates.

Keywords: forecasting · COVID-19 · Davao City · LINGO · Mixed-Integer Programming · Optimization · Philippines · SARS-CoV-2 · Vaccinet