Application of Rapid Climate Decision Analysis in Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecast for Corn Farmers in Albay, Philippines

Abstract

There have been notable advancements in the capabilities to generate seasonal climate forecasts to the level of generating accurate information in a cost-effective manner. One such tool is the SARAI [Smarter Approaches to Reinvigorate Agriculture as an Industry in the Philippines] Enhanced Agricultural Monitoring System (SEAMS) that can generate climate information using open source software and remotely sensed images from different satellites. Innovations such as SEAMS allow for better access to seasonal climate information by ordinary farmers. This paper aims to determine the economic value of seasonal climate forecasts in a climate-sensitive corn farming decision using the Rapid Climate Decision Analysis (RCDA) tool. Results from the RCDA showed that farmers are worse off by about PhP 6370 per hectare if they continue planting with a very dry forecast. The RCDA results together with the farm and farmer characteristics imply that decision makers could implement campaigns to forego farming during seasons with very dry to severely dry forecasts for similar farmers. Policy implications and recommendations related to improving access and utilization of seasonal climate forecasts are discussed in the paper.